Noroestevs
Primavera SP
COMPLETEDBrazil · Copa Paulista · 9/19/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Primavera SP · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Noroeste 0-0 Primavera SP
Original prediction
Primavera SP
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 00:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.20 | 41.0% | 26.7% | -14.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.00 | 30.0% | 24.8% | -5.2 pts |
| Away | 3.12 | 28.9% | 48.5% | 19.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
19.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Primavera SP
Probability
48.5%
Model confidence
48.5%
Primavera SP has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 17 · GA 5 · avg 3.40/1.00