NoroestevsNova Iguaçu

Noroeste are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Nova Iguaçu are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLLWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Noroeste hold a 5.8-point power-rating edge (51.9 v 46.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 29.8% in the Serie D, while Noroeste holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 20% BTTS chance and 13% for over 2.5 goals.