Nordia Jerusalemvs
Hapoel Marmorek
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 10/19/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Marmorek · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nordia Jerusalem 1-4 Hapoel Marmorek
Original prediction
Hapoel Marmorek
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.35 | 14.1% | 22.6% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.30 | 20.8% | 25.4% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 1.37 | 65.1% | 52.1% | -13.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Marmorek
Probability
52.1%
Model confidence
52.1%
Hapoel Marmorek has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 16 · avg 0.40/3.20
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40