Nordia Jerusalemvs
Hapoel Hadera
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 9/30/2026, 4:50:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hapoel Hadera · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nordia Jerusalem 0-4 Hapoel Hadera
Original prediction
Hapoel Hadera
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.60 | 19.4% | 31.4% | 12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 23.1% | 27.2% | 4.1 pts |
| Away | 1.56 | 57.5% | 41.4% | -16.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–09%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Hapoel Hadera
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Hapoel Hadera has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00