Nordia Jerusalemvs
FC Jerusalem
COMPLETEDIsrael · Liga Alef · 9/18/2026, 8:55:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Jerusalem · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nordia Jerusalem 1-3 FC Jerusalem
Original prediction
FC Jerusalem
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.29 | 16.8% | 24.9% | 8.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.02 | 22.1% | 25.4% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 1.46 | 61.0% | 49.7% | -11.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.46 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
FC Jerusalem
Probability
49.7%
Model confidence
49.7%
FC Jerusalem has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 14 · avg 1.40/2.80
GF 12 · GA 7 · avg 2.40/1.40