Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Noordwijk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Noordwijk 1-2 Zwaluwen
Original prediction
Noordwijk
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 53.8% | 42.1% | -11.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 23.4% | 27.4% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 3.94 | 22.8% | 30.5% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Noordwijk
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Noordwijk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NoordwijkWWLLW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ZwaluwenWLWL
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.50/1.00
BTTS 2/4O2.5 3/4
NoordwijkZwaluwen
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24