Nong Bua Pitchayavs
Satun
COMPLETEDThailand · Thai League 2 · 9/19/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nong Bua Pitchaya · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nong Bua Pitchaya 4-3 Satun
Original prediction
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 48.1% | 40.0% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 26.4% | 26.4% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.53 | 25.5% | 33.7% | 8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.87 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Nong Bua Pitchaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 2.67/1.67