Nong Bua Pitchayavs
Chiangmai United
COMPLETEDThailand · Thai League 2 · 10/14/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nong Bua Pitchaya · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3-1 Chiangmai United
Original prediction
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 17:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 53.3% | 39.8% | -13.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.3% | 28.7% | 4.4 pts |
| Away | 4.02 | 22.3% | 31.5% | 9.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.68 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Nong Bua Pitchaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80