Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nocerina · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nocerina 1-2 Gladiator
Original prediction
Nocerina
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.67 | 54.0% | 42.2% | -11.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 24.1% | 27.5% | 3.3 pts |
| Away | 4.13 | 21.9% | 30.3% | 8.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Nocerina
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Nocerina has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NocerinaLLDWW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
GladiatorDDDLW
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
NocerinaGladiator
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24