Nõmme Unitedvs
Vaprus
COMPLETEDEstonia · Cup · 9/2/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nõmme United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-1 (7%), 1-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nõmme United 3-2 Vaprus
Original prediction
Nõmme United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 41.1% | 41.2% | 0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.0% | 24.4% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.65 | 33.9% | 34.4% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–17%
- 3.1–16%
Predicted outcome
Nõmme United
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
Nõmme United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60