Nõmme Unitedvs
Vaprus
COMPLETEDEstonia · Meistriliiga · 10/23/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nõmme United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nõmme United 4-2 Vaprus
Original prediction
Nõmme United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 44.7% | 44.3% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.3% | 21.6% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 2.97 | 30.0% | 34.1% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–18%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Nõmme United
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Nõmme United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20