Nõmme Unitedvs
Paide
COMPLETEDEstonia · Meistriliiga · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paide · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 1-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nõmme United 1-3 Paide
Original prediction
Paide
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.34 | 20.6% | 21.4% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.14 | 21.6% | 18.8% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 1.55 | 57.8% | 59.8% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.1–38%
Predicted outcome
Paide
Probability
59.8%
Model confidence
59.8%
Paide has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Nõmme UnitedLWLWL
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
PaideWLWLW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Nõmme UnitedPaide
54.8Attack53.6
22.6Defence58.3
33.3Form57.1
37.8Power57.9
1.39xG2.42