Esiliiga A
Nõmme United II
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Viimsi
AwayThe model sees this as an open match — all three outcomes are within a tight range.
The model projects 1.53 xG for Nõmme United II and 1.44 xG for Viimsi — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. The xG gap between the sides is narrow (0.08), meaning neither defence is expected to completely shut the other out.The attack-versus-defence matchup supports both teams scoring. Nõmme United II's Attack Score (73) exceeds Viimsi's Defensive Stability (14), and Viimsi's attack (54) similarly tests Nõmme United II's defence (14). Neither backline is dominant enough to prevent the other side from scoring.
The model projects a combined xG of 2.97 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. The xG distribution places the most weight on scorelines that clear 2.5, though the margin above the threshold is not large.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Nõmme United II's Attack Score (73) vs Viimsi's Defensive Stability (14) and Viimsi's attack (54) vs Nõmme United II's defence (14) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.
Momentum trend
last 5 matchesNõmme United IIViimsiProbability breakdown
Nõmme United II leads with 36% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Nõmme United II Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-1
Nõmme United II host Viimsi in Esiliiga A. Nõmme United II have recorded LDLDLL in recent matches while Viimsi arrive with a run of LDDLWW. These sides have met 2 times recently, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Key factors
Why GoalVio backs this
Nõmme United II have a structural home advantage that the model quantifies directly. Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams — empirically derived from home sides scoring 10–15% more goals on their own ground. The Elo model gives Nõmme United II a 57% expected score in this fixture. When the underlying metrics are otherwise close, home advantage is often the decisive tipping factor.
Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours Nõmme United II, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Viimsi score first, the game becomes genuinely open.
Risk factors
- ⚠Nõmme United II have been conceding 2.94 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
- ⚠The xG gap is narrow at 0.08 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
- ⚠With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
Recent form
Nõmme United II
Viimsi
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Nõmme United II vs Viimsi?
GoalVio's model predicts Nõmme United II to win with 37% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Nõmme United II vs Viimsi?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.
Will both teams score in Nõmme United II vs Viimsi?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Nõmme United II vs Viimsi?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.