Nõmme United IIvs
Elva
COMPLETEDEstonia · Esiliiga A · 9/3/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Elva · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nõmme United II 0-1 Elva
Original prediction
Elva
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.76 | 32.6% | 30.3% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 23.5% | 19.4% | -4.1 pts |
| Away | 2.05 | 43.9% | 50.3% | 6.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.05 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Elva
Probability
50.3%
Model confidence
50.3%
Elva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Nõmme United IILDWLW
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
ElvaDWLWW
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Nõmme United IIElva
57.3Attack56.0
25.3Defence50.7
36.0Form50.7
41.5Power53.7
1.82xG2.47