NK Slaven Belupovs
HNK Rijeka
COMPLETEDCroatia · HNL · 10/11/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
HNK Rijeka · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
NK Slaven Belupo 4-1 HNK Rijeka
Original prediction
HNK Rijeka
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.11 | 17.9% | 15.1% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.95 | 23.2% | 20.7% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 1.56 | 58.9% | 64.2% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
HNK Rijeka
Probability
64.2%
Model confidence
64.2%
HNK Rijeka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 2.80/0.60