Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
NK Ormoz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-1 (9%), 3-1 (9%), 4-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
NK Ormoz 4-3 Dobrovce
Original prediction
NK Ormoz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 18:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 72.9% | 75.1% | 2.3 pts |
| Draw | 6.20 | 14.6% | 13.5% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 7.25 | 12.5% | 11.3% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–19%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.4–08%
Predicted outcome
NK Ormoz
Probability
75.1%
Model confidence
75.1%
NK Ormoz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NK OrmozLWDLW
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
DobrovceLWLWL
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
NK OrmozDobrovce
81.0Attack38.1
47.6Defence9.5
61.9Form28.6
63.1Power29.2
4.04xG1.14