NK Lokomotiva Zagrebvs
NK Varazdin
COMPLETEDCroatia · HNL · 10/11/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
NK Varazdin · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 0-2 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 NK Varazdin
Original prediction
NK Varazdin
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.12 | 29.3% | 21.0% | -8.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.3% | 23.0% | -4.3 pts |
| Away | 2.11 | 43.4% | 56.0% | 12.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.0–211%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
NK Varazdin
Probability
56.0%
Model confidence
56.0%
NK Varazdin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40