NK Lokomotiva Zagrebvs
HNK Rijeka
COMPLETEDCroatia · HNL · 9/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
HNK Rijeka · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HNK Rijeka
Original prediction
HNK Rijeka
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.41 | 17.0% | 33.8% | 16.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 23.6% | 26.8% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 1.54 | 59.5% | 39.4% | -20.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.89 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
HNK Rijeka
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
HNK Rijeka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80