Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Musa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
NJS 4-0 Musa
Original prediction
Musa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.89 | 31.2% | 35.9% | 4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.88 | 23.3% | 21.2% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 1.98 | 45.6% | 43.0% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Musa
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Musa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NJSLLLLL
GF 2 · GA 16 · avg 0.40/3.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
MusaWLLLL
GF 3 · GA 16 · avg 0.60/3.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
NJSMusa
18.5Attack35.2
0.0Defence0.0
1.9Form22.2
11.6Power22.3
1.78xG1.90