NWSL WomenNWSL Women
Saturday, 18 July 2026Last updated 12:42
NJ/NY Gotham FC W

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

Home
WW
32
Full time
Seattle Reign FC W

Seattle Reign FC W

Away
L
Sports Illustrated Stadium
GoalVio prediction
46% confidence
NJ/NY Gotham FC W(47%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
47%
Draw
35%
Seattle Reign FC W
18%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
73
Seattle Reign FC W
34
Defence
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
82
Seattle Reign FC W
6
Momentum
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
100
Seattle Reign FC W
0
Danger (xG)
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
1.80
Seattle Reign FC W
0.90
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.56 xG for NJ/NY Gotham FC W and 1.06 xG for Seattle Reign FC W — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Seattle Reign FC W holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's strong attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.62 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. The xG distribution places the most weight on scorelines that clear 2.5, though the margin above the threshold is not large.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. NJ/NY Gotham FC W's Attack Score (73) vs Seattle Reign FC W's Defensive Stability (6) and Seattle Reign FC W's attack (34) vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W's defence (82) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (NJ/NY Gotham FC W)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Seattle Reign FC W)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (NJ/NY Gotham FC W)
0.45
avg per match
xG against (Seattle Reign FC W)
2.70
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
NJ/NY Gotham FC WNJ/NY Gotham FC W
WWW
Seattle Reign FC WSeattle Reign FC W
LLL

Probability breakdown

46% confidence
NJ/NY Gotham FC W47%
Draw35%
Seattle Reign FC W18%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W leads with 47% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

Share this

Analysis

NJ/NY Gotham FC W Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

NJ/NY Gotham FC W host Seattle Reign FC W in NWSL Women. NJ/NY Gotham FC W have recorded WLWWWD in recent matches while Seattle Reign FC W arrive with a run of WLLWLW. These sides have met 10 times recently, averaging 2.4 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.56 expected goals for NJ/NY Gotham FC W against 1.06 for Seattle Reign FC W — a clear advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. NJ/NY Gotham FC W's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 63% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: 🔄 Head-to-Head Record NJ/NY Gotham FC W have won 5 of the last 10 meetings between these sides — a historically dominant record that the model treats as a meaningful signal when the underlying stats are otherwise close.

Why GoalVio backs this

NJ/NY Gotham FC W are generating a clear xG advantage — 1.56 projected against 1.06 for Seattle Reign FC W. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 0.51 is the clearest signal in the model that NJ/NY Gotham FC W are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: Seattle Reign FC W have won 3 of their last 10 matches — a run of form the model acknowledges but cannot fully override. If Seattle Reign FC W carry that momentum into this fixture and score first, the upset probability rises significantly above what the headline verdict suggests.

Risk factors

  • Seattle Reign FC W are in decent form with 3 wins from their last 10 matches — an upset cannot be ruled out.
  • These sides have drawn 3 of their last 10 meetings — history suggests a tight, unpredictable contest.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.

Head to head

NJ/NY Gotham FC W 1Draws 00 Seattle Reign FC W
Avg goals: 2.0
16 May 2026
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
W20
Seattle Reign FC W

Recent form

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

W
vs Washington Spirit W
16 Jul 2026
10
W
@ Utah Royals W
11 Jul 2026
31
W
@ Seattle Reign FC
16 May 2026
20
Seattle Reign FC W

Seattle Reign FC W

L
@ North Carolina Courage W
5 Jul 2026
13
L
vs NJ/NY Gotham FC W
16 May 2026
02
L
vs Washington Spirit W
11 May 2026
01

Frequently asked questions

Who will win NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Seattle Reign FC W?

GoalVio's model predicts NJ/NY Gotham FC W to win with 46% confidence.

What is the predicted score for NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Seattle Reign FC W?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Seattle Reign FC W?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Seattle Reign FC W?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

Explore more predictions

About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
View full accuracy stats →
Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more