Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Nimes are 0W-2D-1L in their last 3 (DDL), averaging 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded, while Le Mans are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 8 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Le Mans hold a 5.8-point power-rating edge (47.5 v 53.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.6% in the Ligue 3, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 35% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.67/1.33
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20