Nigeriavs
Madagascar
COMPLETEDWorld · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · 9/25/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nigeria · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 3-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nigeria 2-1 Madagascar
Original prediction
Nigeria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.18 | 78.1% | 67.5% | -10.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.87 | 15.7% | 19.3% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 14.81 | 6.2% | 13.2% | 7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.3–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Nigeria
Probability
67.5%
Model confidence
67.5%
Nigeria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00