Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Niger · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Niger 0-0 Lesotho, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Niger 2-1 Lesotho
Original prediction
Niger
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 53.7% | 43.4% | -10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.9% | 29.7% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 4.70 | 19.4% | 26.9% | 7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.70 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.4 pts
Projected Score
Niger 0–0 Lesotho
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Niger
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Niger has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NigerLDLDD
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 0/5
LesothoLDWDL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NigerLesotho
25.0Attack22.2
58.3Defence55.6
16.7Form27.8
36.5Power37.6
1.05xG0.79