Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Twente · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Nice are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WWLDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Twente are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLDL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Twente hold an 8.2-point power-rating edge (28.3 v 36.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.6% in the UEFA Europa League, while Twente holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Twente
Probability
48.6%
Model confidence
48.6%
Twente has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20