Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lille · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nice 2-1 Lille
Original prediction
Lille
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.39 | 28.1% | 26.5% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 27.3% | 27.0% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.13 | 44.6% | 46.6% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Lille
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Lille has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NiceLDLDD
GF 1 · GA 5 · avg 0.20/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
LilleWLWDW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NiceLille
8.3Attack58.3
58.3Defence83.3
16.7Form83.3
30.9Power77.1
0.91xG1.52