Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nice · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nice 1-1 Le Mans
Original prediction
Nice
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 51.8% | 41.4% | -10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 25.9% | 26.8% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.24 | 22.4% | 31.9% | 9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.67 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Nice
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Nice has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NiceLDDDL
GF 0 · GA 5 · avg 0.00/1.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Le MansLDLDD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
NiceLe Mans
0.0Attack66.7
50.0Defence16.7
16.7Form16.7
26.2Power36.5
1.55xG1.45