Nicaraguavs
Dominican Republic
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 10/5/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dominican Republic · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nicaragua 1-2 Dominican Republic
Original prediction
Dominican Republic
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.58 | 20.2% | 27.9% | 7.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.08 | 22.6% | 23.8% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.61 | 57.3% | 48.3% | -9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.61 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Dominican Republic
Probability
48.3%
Model confidence
48.3%
Dominican Republic has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 16 · avg 0.60/3.20
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40