Nicaraguavs
Costa Rica
COMPLETEDWorld · CONCACAF Nations League · 10/2/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Costa Rica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Nicaragua 0-3 Costa Rica
Original prediction
Costa Rica
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.51 | 12.3% | 33.5% | 21.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.69 | 19.7% | 24.0% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 1.36 | 68.0% | 42.5% | -25.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Costa Rica
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Costa Rica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 16 · avg 0.80/3.20
GF 4 · GA 17 · avg 0.80/3.40