Newtown AFCvs
Porthmadog
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 9/26/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newtown AFC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newtown AFC 0-1 Porthmadog
Original prediction
Newtown AFC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.47 | 61.1% | 60.0% | -1.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.28 | 21.0% | 20.4% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 4.99 | 18.0% | 19.5% | 1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Newtown AFC
Probability
60.0%
Model confidence
60.0%
Newtown AFC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 1 · avg 1.60/0.20
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80