Newtown AFCvs
Llanuwchllyn
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 8/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newtown AFC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (9%), 3-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newtown AFC 4-0 Llanuwchllyn
Original prediction
Newtown AFC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 67.8% | 64.7% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.20 | 17.5% | 18.8% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 6.18 | 14.7% | 16.5% | 1.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–09%
- 2.3–19%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Newtown AFC
Probability
64.7%
Model confidence
64.7%
Newtown AFC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60