Newtown AFCvs
Denbigh Town
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 9/5/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newtown AFC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 4-1 (8%), 3-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newtown AFC 1-0 Denbigh Town
Original prediction
Newtown AFC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.40 | 64.5% | 67.3% | 2.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.65 | 19.4% | 17.4% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 5.63 | 16.1% | 15.3% | -0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.4–18%
- 3.3–08%
Predicted outcome
Newtown AFC
Probability
67.3%
Model confidence
67.3%
Newtown AFC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 1 · avg 2.80/0.20
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40