Newtown AFCvs
Bangor City 1876 FC
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/10/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newtown AFC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newtown AFC 0-0 Bangor City 1876 FC
Original prediction
Newtown AFC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 60.2% | 60.9% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.24 | 21.2% | 19.9% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 4.86 | 18.5% | 19.2% | 0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Newtown AFC
Probability
60.9%
Model confidence
60.9%
Newtown AFC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40