Newry City AFCvs
H&W Welders
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Championship · 9/25/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
H&W Welders · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newry City AFC 3-2 H&W Welders
Original prediction
H&W Welders
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.41 | 26.5% | 29.9% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 23.6% | 25.0% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 1.82 | 49.9% | 45.1% | -4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
H&W Welders
Probability
45.1%
Model confidence
45.1%
H&W Welders has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60