Newry City AFCvs
Armagh City
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · Championship · 9/4/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newry City AFC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newry City AFC 2-2 Armagh City
Original prediction
Newry City AFC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 60.9% | 42.1% | -18.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.05 | 22.5% | 26.2% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 5.53 | 16.5% | 31.7% | 15.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.05 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Newry City AFC
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Newry City AFC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 3 · GA 14 · avg 0.60/2.80