Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newroz · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Newroz 1-0 Diyala, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Newroz 0-0 Diyala
Original prediction
Newroz
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 18:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 55.0% | 56.0% | 1.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.4% | 25.6% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 4.86 | 18.6% | 18.4% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.43 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.0 pts
Projected Score
Newroz 1–0 Diyala
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Newroz
Probability
56.0%
Model confidence
56.0%
Newroz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
NewrozWWDWW
GF 8 · GA 0 · avg 1.60/0.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
DiyalaWLDWL
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
NewrozDiyala
43.3Attack50.0
83.3Defence46.7
60.0Form40.0
63.0Power47.4
1.56xG0.63