GGOALVIO

England · League Cup · 8/8/2023, 6:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Newport County · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Newport County are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LDLLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 3.00 conceded, while Charlton are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWW), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Newport County hold a 52.7-point power-rating edge (68.0 v 15.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.7% in the League Cup, while Newport County holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Newport County

Probability

50.7%

Model confidence

50.7%

Newport County has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Newport CountyLDLLL

GF 1 · GA 15 · avg 0.20/3.00

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
CharltonWLDWW

GF 13 · GA 6 · avg 2.60/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Newport CountyCharlton
66.7Attack33.3
66.7Defence0.0
66.7Form0.0
68.0Power15.3
2.02xG1.03
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