GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 11/14/2023, 7:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Newport County · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Newport County are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Bristol Rovers are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDWDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Bristol Rovers hold a 7.7-point power-rating edge (45.5 v 53.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.3% in the EFL Trophy, while Newport County holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Newport County

Probability

36.3%

Model confidence

36.3%

Newport County has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Newport CountyDLWLD

GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Bristol RoversWDWDL

GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Newport CountyBristol Rovers
22.2Attack58.3
77.8Defence50.0
33.3Form50.0
45.5Power53.2
1.53xG1.46
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