Newport Cityvs
Ynyshir Albions
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 8/28/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newport City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newport City 0-1 Ynyshir Albions
Original prediction
Newport City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.69 | 53.9% | 50.1% | -3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 23.6% | 24.5% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.03 | 22.5% | 25.4% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Newport City
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Newport City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00