Newport Cityvs
Trethomas Bluebirds
POSTPONEDWales · FAW Championship · 9/16/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newport City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 45.1% | 48.0% | 2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.1% | 23.2% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.03 | 29.8% | 28.7% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Newport City
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
Newport City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Newport CityLLWLW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Trethomas BluebirdsDWWLL
GF 13 · GA 12 · avg 2.60/2.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
Newport CityTrethomas Bluebirds
60.0Attack66.7
66.7Defence38.1
40.0Form42.9
53.2Power50.4
2.23xG1.52