Newport Cityvs
Pontypridd Town
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/23/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pontypridd Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newport City 4-4 Pontypridd Town
Original prediction
Pontypridd Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 38.7% | 36.6% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.53 | 25.5% | 24.4% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.52 | 35.8% | 39.0% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Pontypridd Town
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Pontypridd Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40