Newington Youthvs
Ballymena United
COMPLETEDNorthern-Ireland · League Cup · 10/20/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ballymena United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newington Youth 1-3 Ballymena United
Original prediction
Ballymena United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.82 | 18.7% | 34.4% | 15.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.57 | 19.8% | 24.9% | 5.2 pts |
| Away | 1.47 | 61.5% | 40.7% | -20.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Ballymena United
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Ballymena United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00