Newells Old Boysvs
Velez Sarsfield
COMPLETEDArgentina · Liga Profesional Argentina · 9/11/2026, 8:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Velez Sarsfield · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Newells Old Boys 0-0 Velez Sarsfield, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Newells Old Boys 1-1 Velez Sarsfield
Original prediction
Velez Sarsfield
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.85 | 32.8% | 28.7% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.90 | 32.2% | 32.1% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.67 | 35.0% | 39.2% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.90 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.2 pts
Projected Score
Newells Old Boys 0–0 Velez Sarsfield
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Velez Sarsfield
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Velez Sarsfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80