Argentina · Reserve League · 10/6/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Newell's Old Boys Res. 0-0 Estudiantes La Plata Res, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Newell's Old Boys Res. 1-1 Estudiantes La Plata Res
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 23 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 40.3% | 35.1% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.93 | 30.4% | 31.9% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.03 | 29.3% | 33.0% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.93 · Draw 1.93 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.6 pts
Projected Score
Newell's Old Boys Res. 0–0 Estudiantes La Plata Res
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.9%
Model confidence
35.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80