Newcastle United Wvs
Sunderland W
COMPLETEDEngland · WSL Cup · 10/18/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newcastle United W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newcastle United W 0-1 Sunderland W
Original prediction
Newcastle United W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 59.1% | 43.4% | -15.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.90 | 22.7% | 25.3% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 4.87 | 18.2% | 31.3% | 13.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Newcastle United W
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Newcastle United W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40