Newcastle United Wvs
Sheffield United W
COMPLETEDEngland · Women's Championship · 9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newcastle United W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newcastle United W 4-1 Sheffield United W
Original prediction
Newcastle United W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.23 | 73.5% | 52.0% | -21.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.21 | 17.3% | 25.4% | 8.2 pts |
| Away | 9.81 | 9.2% | 22.6% | 13.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Newcastle United W
Probability
52.0%
Model confidence
52.0%
Newcastle United W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 3 · GA 14 · avg 0.60/2.80