Newcastle United Wvs
Leicester City FC W
COMPLETEDEngland · Women's Championship · 9/27/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newcastle United W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newcastle United W 4-0 Leicester City FC W
Original prediction
Newcastle United W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 20:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 57.6% | 45.7% | -11.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 23.3% | 27.5% | 4.2 pts |
| Away | 4.73 | 19.0% | 26.8% | 7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Newcastle United W
Probability
45.7%
Model confidence
45.7%
Newcastle United W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00