Newcastle United U21vs
Sunderland U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 10/26/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sunderland U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (8%), 1-2 (7%), 2-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newcastle United U21 3-2 Sunderland U21
Original prediction
Sunderland U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 17:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.64 | 34.0% | 27.5% | -6.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 23.3% | 22.1% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 2.10 | 42.7% | 50.5% | 7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–38%
- 2.1–27%
- 3.2–37%
Predicted outcome
Sunderland U21
Probability
50.5%
Model confidence
50.5%
Sunderland U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00