Newcastle Jetsvs
Macarthur
COMPLETEDAustralia · A-League · 10/24/2026, 4:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newcastle Jets · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newcastle Jets 1-1 Macarthur
Original prediction
Newcastle Jets
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 12:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 45.3% | 36.9% | -8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 24.6% | 26.4% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.13 | 30.1% | 36.6% | 6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.83 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Newcastle Jets
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Newcastle Jets has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 16 · avg 1.40/3.20
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00