Newcastle Jetsvs
Gamba Osaka
COMPLETEDWorld · AFC Champions League Elite · 10/13/2026, 7:45:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Gamba Osaka · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newcastle Jets 1-3 Gamba Osaka
Original prediction
Gamba Osaka
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.78 | 24.4% | 27.2% | 2.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.07 | 22.7% | 25.3% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 1.75 | 52.9% | 47.4% | -5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Gamba Osaka
Probability
47.4%
Model confidence
47.4%
Gamba Osaka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80