Newcastle Jets IIvs
Bankstown City Lions
COMPLETEDAustralia · New South Wales NPL 2 · 8/29/2026, 7:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bankstown City Lions · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 1-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Newcastle Jets II 2-9 Bankstown City Lions
Original prediction
Bankstown City Lions
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.15 | 17.5% | 24.0% | 6.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.32 | 20.9% | 17.9% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 1.47 | 61.5% | 58.1% | -3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–27%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.1–37%
Predicted outcome
Bankstown City Lions
Probability
58.1%
Model confidence
58.1%
Bankstown City Lions has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20